Career counselling helps you find out what you're here for. This is the best way to future proof your life!
The world is changing fast. The perfect storm is forming - global warming, pandemics, disruptive technologies, exponential growth and so on. Any one of these alone has the power to alter the world in unprecedented ways, but combined, the results compound and accelerate into something unimaginable.
And yet, we act as if nothing is happening. We keep planning for the future like it was some continuation of the past - we daydream about our children becoming lawyers, doctors, and engineers and expect they’ll live a life very similar to ours.
The chances of that happening are virtually zero
Not only do we have predictable changes e.g. A.I, automation, robotics and the like. We also have ‘black swans’ - rare events impossible to foresee with vast consequences - and there is no way to prepare for those. COVID-19 has been quite bad but it’s not a black swan, scientists have been warning about it for years. If the damage has been so big for something predictable, what will happen when we are hit by something unpredictable? What can we do to get ready for the future?
The threat of AI
Automation is going to replace many workers in the near future, blue and white-collar alike. This has been happening for years already. The professions most in danger are:
Routine mechanical jobs. If your job doesn’t have a lot of variety then it could be easily replaced, the only reason it hasn’t yet it’s cost. Humans are still competitive in minimum wage professions but automation is getting cheaper and eventually will get there.
Highly specialized jobs. No one can beat a machine at something very specific, that’s exactly what they are built for. Air traffic controllers, pilots, underwater welding, or laser cutting, these jobs were never meant to be done by humans. We just did it provisionally until the machines were ready. Plus, the salaries are high so the incentive to switch to machines is big.
Data jobs. Some professions are based on processing and managing large amounts of data. Some of the tasks done by lawyers and doctors involve dealing with information in order to make decisions. This is the domain of Artificial Intelligence. IBM Watson is a computer that offers accurate medical diagnostics and it’s only getting better. Granted, diagnostics are only one of the task of what doctors do but it’s quite an important task.
Driving. All drivers including pilots will be replaced, first by low skilled operators relying on AI and eventually by machines.
So, what’s left? Here is how career change counselling will help you to identify and develop the specific skills you need to future proof your career
These are the skills that are going to have a longer shelf life and will contribute significantly to ensuring you future proof your career and your life.
Creativity. Real creativity is very hard to replicate. There have been clumsy attempts by computers in music and art but for the time being, it’s a human domain. Creativity can also open many doors, not just for the arts. Most future professions haven’t been created yet, this requires imagination and ingenuity. So inventing new professions is a safe niche.
Flexibility. Machines are not flexible at all. If your job involves a variety of skills and tasks, it’ll be future-proof for years to come.
Social interaction. There are still a few years until AI can understand humans and communicate with empathy and sensitivity. Any of the social sciences will be in high demand for years to come.
Entrepreneurs. This is the sweet spot for humans. We can take advantage of technology and combine it with creativity and people skills to produce value at scale. If you are in your 20’s and don’t know what to do with your life, this is the way to go. Learn as much as you can and test, try, tinker, and pivot until something sticks. There will never be a shortage of work for people with initiative and imagination.
The human-machine cyborg
Often we think of the future as a place populated by machines doing all the work and making most decisions while we sit around by the pool sipping a pina colada. This might happen eventually, but what it’s already happening is the combination of human and machine i.e. you and your smartphone.
With this powerful combination, we get two main advantages. First, humans become more productive - by doing several jobs at once and taking advantage of the data processing speed. Second, the entry barriers to most professions get lowered - with the right software, anyone can become a designer, programmer, or accountant without training for years.
London taxi drivers, for instance, are very pissed off. They had to study for years in order to pass the “Test” to become a London cabbie. They memorize so much information that their brains grow as a result. Now, any idiot with a phone can find directions easily and work for Uber, lowering entry barriers.
Professions that are under threat due to this are pilots, air traffic controllers, coders, designers, engineers, mechanics, and many others. I, for instance, could beat the chess world champion if they let me use my phone (I’m bluffing, but you get the point). That’s cheating, you might think, but that is precisely the point. Machines are here to break the rules, get used to it, or get out. If you want to keep playing you need to use all the shortcuts available.
Ever since we started carry that little piece of technology in our pockets we have become cyborgs and that’s given us many new powers - navigation, unlimited information, computer power, social networks, etc. This is detrimental to many professionals and unless they react, reinvent themselves and create new possibilities, it’s game over.
Advice for the young
Most professions are going to disappear. It’s not a matter of if, it’s a matter of when. Some will be replaced by machines and others by hyper productive humans. In this time and age, I would advise against any profession that takes years to master and costs a fortune in college fees. It would be a shame to train for 10 years to become the best bankruptcy lawyer in town only to be replaced by a machine.
Since most future professions haven’t been invented yet it’s highly unlikely you could get ready for them by following the path of formal education. The only way forward is to become flexible, creative, social, comfortable around technology, eager to learn, and with the right mindset.
Let’s say your dream is to become a pilot, I would advise against it, but if you must, this is how you should approach it. Instead of training for years and spending a fortune, you could get a PPL license in 3 months, that allows you to fly small planes, and then when the time comes you’ll be able to access supervisory flying jobs since most of the flying will be automatic. Eventually, no humans will be required but then you can move into some other related fields. Driving or flying is not for humans and never was. Machines are best operated by other machines. This is my guess, only the future will tell.
University
I see a bleak future for universities. They are teaching skills from the past which will be obsolete by the time you finish your degree. Granted, some knowledge is universal and evergreen, but mostly it’s not. Apart from the huge investment in time and money, there is the opportunity cost - those precious years should be put to better use. Spend that time creating something real, instead of learning some theories with no use outside the classroom.
Learning to learn is the most important skill you will need in your life and unfortunately, universities aren’t well equipped to teach you that. Most professors are just library mice with high-risk avoidance. They’ve never worked in the real world or produced anything of value. Think of the great inventions of the last 100 years, how many of those came from universities? Zero.
In fact, most of those came from university dropouts. There is some survivorship bias in this observation but still. After centuries and millions spent in research, universities have very little to show for it. Nowadays you can learn those skills almost for free online.
There is the case of Scott Young who completed the MIT challenge - studying a 4 year MIT curriculum in just 1 year for free. He did it independently and even passed the exams. He didn’t get a degree since he didn’t pay the fees but still, it’s a remarkable achievement and many employers are interested in hiring people with that kind of initiative, self-reliance, and determination.
There is a trend among the best companies in the world — Google, Amazon, Facebook - to ignore college qualifications and instead look into personal portfolios. GitHub, Medium, Unsplash, and many other portals are a great way to show the work you are capable of rather than a degree. I studied mechanical engineering years ago and by the time I finished, my marketable skills were virtually zero. Total waste of time. I don’t recommend my son to get a degree.
Learn the basics of any skill quickly and start producing output straight away. That is the only future proof skill you’ll ever need.
Article by Alberto Guerrero. Contrarian, inquisitive, rebel, unconventional, dreamer and warrior. Never give up, never too late, never enough. Enjoying the journey and making the most of it.
